Highland Heights, Ohio — Mike Kirchner has released Preparing for the OAS Catastrophe, a policy-focused book that examines the long-term financial outlook of the Old Age and Survivor (OAS) program and presents the author’s analysis of potential risks associated with its current funding structure. Drawing on government reports, publicly available financial data, and independently developed calculations, the book explores projected funding challenges, benefit obligations, and policy considerations related to Social Security’s future.
The publication outlines four primary objectives: estimating and explaining financial measures the author believes are important to evaluating the program, communicating the possibility of future benefit reductions, examining the potential economic impact of funding shortfalls, and presenting a proposal intended to reduce future benefit accruals beginning in 2027.
Throughout the book, Kirchner argues that greater transparency regarding long-term benefit obligations could contribute to more informed public discussion. He introduces his own estimates of what he describes as “unfunded promises,” compares projected benefits with historical payroll tax contributions in selected examples, and discusses how these estimates relate to publicly available government financial information. The manuscript also references trustee reports, Federal Reserve data, Treasury information, and Bureau of Labor Statistics data as supporting sources for portions of its analysis.
In addition to analyzing financial projections, Preparing for the OAS Catastrophe discusses several possible policy responses that could emerge if trust fund assets become depleted. These include benefit adjustments, changes in payroll taxes, increased borrowing, expanded taxation, and other legislative approaches. The author also presents his own proposal, which includes redirecting a portion of employee payroll taxes into tax-deferred retirement accounts while maintaining employer contributions to the existing trust structure. These proposals are presented as part of the author’s perspective on potential policy alternatives.
The book is intended for readers interested in public policy, retirement finance, government budgeting, and long-term fiscal planning. Rather than serving as an investment guide or legislative recommendation, it presents the author’s interpretation of available financial data and encourages discussion about future planning and preparedness.
About the Author
Mike Kirchner is an Ohio-based researcher from Highland Heights whose work focuses on the long-term financial sustainability of Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor program. According to the author, Preparing for the OAS Catastrophe is the result of several thousand hours of independent research examining publicly available financial information and developing an original framework for analyzing benefit obligations. Kirchner states that his primary objective is to encourage discussion about long-term planning and policy solutions related to Social Security. He has indicated that this is his first published book and does not anticipate publishing additional works on the subject.
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Website: https://mikekirchner.com/
